BOF 000 FXUS61 KBTV 102044 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 344 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL YIELD VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW. TEMPERATURES MODERATE BEGINNING MONDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS. BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF NC/VA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS VERMONT DURING SATURDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE COLD AIR WILL APPROACH FIRST. JUST A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...PRETTY MINOR EVENT. SHOULD BE FLUFFY SNOW DUE TO COLD AIR AND EXPECT RATIOS TO BE AROUND 20:1. FOLLOWING THE WARM TEMPS OF RECENT DAYS...FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH FROPA MAY YIELD SOME QUICK FREEZING OF ANY SNOW INITIALLY MELTING ON CONTACT WITH AND CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ICY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING FOR UNTREATED SURFACES. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EST FRIDAY...UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND COLD AIR BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CAA ACROSS OUR AREA ALL DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH LOWER 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT TEMPS WILL REACH THE 30S BEFORE THE COLD AIR MAKES IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH. BEST CHANCE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING LATE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WIND DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH WIND AT 5-10 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS WILL BE COLD...GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH A FEW SPOTS JUST BELOW ZERO FAR NORTHERN AREAS. SOME WIND CHILL EFFECTS WITH READINGS 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...SO QUITE A MARKED CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE COLD AS REGION REMAINS INFLUENCED BY ARCTIC AIR MASS. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH MODERATE P-GRADIENT SUPPORTS N-NW WINDS 10-20 MPH AND WILL SEE WIND CHILLS 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES. IT NO LONGER APPEARS THAT WE/LL QUITE MAKE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES. WEAK AND FAST-MOVING AXES OF VORTICITY IN NW 700-500MB FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND WOULD EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES MOST SECTIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 221 PM EST FRIDAY...WELL...THE WINTER OF 2011/12 RETURNS TO IT'S OLD WAYS BY NEXT WEEK AS POLAR VORTEX LIFTS INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN CANADA ALLOWING A MILDER PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOWER 48. VARIABLE CLOUDS/PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE SLV/NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD...THE MOST NOTABLE WED NT/THU MORNING. HOWEVER WITH ZONAL TO MODERATELY CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...THE GOMEX WILL ESSENTIALLY BE CUT OFF AND ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MORNING'S EURO ALSO OFFERS A MODEST GREAT LAKES CUTTER-TYPE SYSTEM BY NEXT THU NIGHT/FRI WITH A POTL LIGHT RAIN/MIXED PCPN EVENT...BUT WITH NO MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME RANGE WILL DISCOUNT FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...I'VE OFFERED LOW TO NIL POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW ON AND OFF FLURRIES/SHSN OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND AREA WIDE WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WED NT/THU MORNING. TOTAL QPF MON-FRI PERIOD GENERALLY 0.15 TO 0.25 IN FAVORED NRN MTN LOCALES...MUCH LESS IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. WITH MEAN 925-850 THERMAL PROFILES MODERATING SIGNIFICANTLY...DAILY HIGHS WILL MODERATE FROM SEASONABLE 20S ON MONDAY INTO THE 35-40 RANGE FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 20 MONDAY NIGHT...THEN 15 TO 25 THEREAFTER...OR SOME 8-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ON AVG. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION DURING 00-12Z TIME FRAME WITH WINDS TRENDING FROM SSW TO NNW OVER TIME. WINDS OCCNLY GUSTY WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHSN ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SCT MVFR SHSN POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND OCCNLY AT KMPV/KSLK DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. 18Z MONDAY ONWARD...PRIMARILY VFR WITH WEAK/MODEST SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SCT ON AND OFF MVFR SHSN POSSIBLE AT KSLK THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO LK ONTARIO SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG EOF