BOF 000 FXUS61 KCAR 102121 CCA AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 412 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM QUEBEC. THE FRONT WILL PRESS INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT. MORE DETAILS ON THIS BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS INDICATE A TRACK OFFSHORE BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS MARGINALLY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE LATEST GEM AND EUROPEAN FEATURE A TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOWFALL IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY. AT THIS POINT OPTED TO STICK MAINLY WITH THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT FLURRIES TO GIVE WAY TO STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUING NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MILO TO PRESQUE ISLE. THE OFFSHORE TRACK WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK MOVER. HOWEVER AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NE WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AND INCREASING TO 15-25 GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, ALONG WITH BITTER WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AREAS APPROACHING MINUS 30 BY LATE NIGHT. ATTM TOTAL POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE FOR WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. GIVEN THE MARGINALNESS OF THE SNFL WITH REGARD TO WNTR STORM SNFL CRITERIA FOR OUR FA OVR THE CURRENT WATCH AREA...AND THAT THE EVENT IS NOT XPCTD TO GET UNDERWAY UNTIL LATE PD 2 (SAT AFTN)...WE HAVE OPTD TO CONT THE WATCH AND WILL WAIT FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING TO COMMIT TO ANY WRNGS AND/OR WNTR WX ADVS WITHIN THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. N OF THE WATCH AREA...2-4 INCHES MAY FALL AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS A LINE FROM ROUGHLY BANGOR TO HOULTON. NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OR TWO FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING AT BEST OVER THE FAR N/W. && .MID TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FOLLOWING THE STORM...SUN LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING MARITIMES LOW TRAVERSES OVR THE FA...WITH HI TEMPS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS N AND TEENS S. WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROF ROTATING NW TO SE AROUND A DEEP ERN CAN UPPER VORTEX WILL BRING SOME CLDNSS AND FLURRIES TO THE FA DURING THE AFTN HRS...OTHERWISE...WE XPCT CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE FA AFT SUNSET. A WEAK RIDGE RIDGE TO THE SW OF THE FA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DE-COUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM STRONGER WINDS ALF PARTICULARLY OVR WRN VLYS OF THE FA VERY LATE SUN NGT... ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. SUBSEQUENTLY...FCST LOWS THIS PD COULD EVEN BE COLDER OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS PD. MON ALSO LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD...BUT NOT AS BRISK AS THE WEAK RIDGE CROSSES THE FA. A BAND OF CLDNSS ALG WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE THE BACK EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR OVR THE FA BY LATE MON NGT. SUBSEQUENTLY...OVRNGT LOWS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...BUT THIS TIMING IS TO UNCERTAIN TO POST FCST LOWS EARLIER THAN 11Z ATTM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS RATHER QUIET W/ GENERALLY WEAK AND NON- DESCRIPT SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA... LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD W/ A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MOVES E W/ A WEAK AND UNORGANIZED LOW FCST TO PASS S OF THE AREA WED-THU TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...GFS THEN ALLOWS LOW PRES TO STRENGTHEN JUST E OF THE AREA ON FRI AND LOOKS LIKE IT TRIES TO RETROGRADE THIS SYSTEM BACK TO THE W AND TOWARD OUR AREA BY SAT. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM E OF THE AREA BUT INSTEAD BRINGS LOW PRES NE FROM THE LOWER GRT LAKES LATE THU AND ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. GIVEN THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY...LONG RANGE POPS ARE BIASED TOWARDS CLIMO AND GENERALLY REFLECT JUST SLGT CHC THRU THE PERIOD AS IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT ANY PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS... && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW BY MID DAY SATURDAY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH IFR DEVELOPING IN LOW CIGS AND SNOW AFTER 14Z SATURDAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SN XPCTD SAT AFTN THRU SAT NGT ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF IFR OVR DOWNEAST DURG THIS PTN OF THE FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS XPCTD FOR ALL TAF SITES BY SUN AFTN CONTG THRU TUE NGT...WITH THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR CONDITIONS PERHAPS ON WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NE TO NW WIND GALE CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY SAT NGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT BASED ON A LITTLE MORE ERN TRACK OF THE LOW...ANY GALES NOT XPCTD TO LAST PAST SUN MORN ATTM...SO WE BACKED THE GALE WATCH ENDING TO 16Z ATTM. FOLLOWING ANY GALE WRNG...AN SCA PD WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUN AFT INTO SUN NGT...FOLLOWED BY NO ANTICIPATED HDLNS MON THRU WED. WE USED A BLEND OF NAM12....GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND A BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN NAM FOR WV HTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MEZ016-017-029-030-032. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS MID TERM...VJN LONG TERM...KHW AVIATION...DUDA MARINE...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/VJN EOF