BOF 000 FXUS61 KGYX 102350 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 650 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PASSING WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE IT WILL STALL ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPDATE...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK. SRN STREAM S/WV BRUSHING THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ATTM...WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY IS ROUNDING THRU THE MIDWEST. AS THESE TWO WAVES INTERACT A COMPLEX LOW PRES WILL EVOLVE...EVENTUALLY COMING TOGETHER S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC COLD FNT IS OOZING SWD OUT OF CANADA...ITS PROGRESS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND THE COLUMN MOISTENS...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH BY DAWN ON AVERAGE. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY VERY WELL REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND SATURDAY AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK DOES NOT SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. FORCING WILL BE QUITE MODEST IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE MID COAST OF MAINE SHOULD SEE THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH A SPOT AMOUNT OF UP TO 5 POSSIBLE ON THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY 3 POSSIBLE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS OPERATIONS MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST 15Z SREF...AND THE ONE WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN. THEREFORE...THE WATCH FOR THE MID COAST HAS BEEN DROPPED. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN SLIPPERY TRAVEL WILL NOT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. PRECIP ENDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS POURS ON IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY ON SUNDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK CLIPPER DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE JUST EXPECTING VARIABLE CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BUT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THEY MIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECT LOWS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RESPOND SOMEWHAT BUT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH TEENS IN THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON FOR MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BROAD AREA OF WEAK OVER-RUNNING WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY. WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE IF ANY LIFT SO WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE TWO DAY PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD REACHING LEVELS NEAR NORMAL. SHORTWAVE SHEARS BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LACKING IN MOISTURE AND SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW. SOME IFR CONDITION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST SATURDAY. LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN COASTAL AREAS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS COASTAL STORM INTENSIFIES WELL TO OUR EAST. SCA FOR G30KT FOR THE BAYS AT THE SAME TIME...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 34-35KT GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT EARLY IN FAR EASTERN WATERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ LEGRO EOF