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Maine Economics and Demographics Publications
SPO reports:
(January 24, 2012) The State Planning Office released the 2011 edition of its annual report on progress made toward the tax burden reduction goal established by PL 2005, chapter 2 (also known as LD 1).
Full Report (PDF)
(January 1, 2011) The State Planning Office released its report in accordance with PL 2005, chapter 2 (also known as LD 1). Under this statute, SPO annually reports on the progress made by the state, counties, municipalities, and school administrative units toward reaching the legislated tax burden reduction goal.
2010 LD 1 Progress Report (PDF)
(September 20, 2010) With the passage of “LD 1” in 2005, towns and counties are required to calculate a property tax levy limit each year based on local property growth and statewide average personal income growth. Each town and county is responsible for calculating its property growth. The State Planning Office (SPO) is responsible for calculating income growth. For the 2010 property tax year (the 2011 budget year for most towns), SPO has determined that figure to be 1.66%. Read the full release for more information and calculations.
2011 Average Personal Income Growth (PDF)
(June 7, 2010) Maine has 5,300 miles of coastline with iconic rocky beaches, lighthouses, and island views. Coastal Maine’s physical features have remained much the same over time. But what about the population?
Maine Coastline Population Trends with Map (PDF)
(March 30, 2010) There are persistent concerns about the departure of young people from the state. As we await the Census 2010 population count, we can consider what we might see in terms of youth migration. There are a few ways of looking at currently available estimates that can give an indication of what has been happening since the last decennial count.
Youth migration summary (PDF)
(March 30, 2010) Demographics are important for companies making future plans based on workforce characteristics and for policy makers to make informed decisions about what skills, services, and resources will be needed years in advance. A few aspects of Maine’s demographic picture stand out: an older population with a large number of baby boomers, relatively few children, and low numbers of racial and ethnic minorities. These factors all combine to give Maine a rapidly aging population and slow population growth, and this report estimates the 20-year population outlook if recent demographic trends continue.
Maine Population Outlook: 2013-2028 (PDF)
State and county population projections by age and sex (XLS)
State and county projection methodology (PDF)
(March 1, 2010) Maine’s population of about 1.3 million just did something rare these days: it declined. According to estimates by the US Census Bureau Maine lost about one tenth of one percent of its population between 2008 and 2009.
Maine 2009 Population Loss (PDF)
(February 3, 2010) Maine has almost five hundred municipalities, but most of them are places where people live, not places where people work. The vast majority of goods and services transactions are concentrated in 77 municipalities defined as Service Centers by the Maine State Planning Office. This Economics team briefing compares Service Center municipalities to other municipalities in Maine.
SPO Service Center Brief, 2010 (PDF)
(November 12, 2009) The Maine State Data Center has compiled a report detailing the dramatic changes in Maine's households over the past few decades. These changes have profound implications for the way Maine people interact, live, and solve problems together. These also present an opportunity to create public policies that encourage denser, more efficient land-use planning.
Maine Families and Living Arrangements (PDF)
(November 1, 2009) Each year since 1998, the Maine State Planning Office has reported on the subject of poverty in Maine. The 2009 report (PDF) contains indicators updated through December 2007.
Impact of UI Benefits in Maine (PDF)
(October 27, 2009) The State Planning Office answers your questions about tax reform: In June, 2009 Governor Baldacci signed a tax reform bill (LD 1495) into law. The new law lowers the top income tax rate and reduces the tax burden on Maine residents by almost $55 million. The law changes the current tax structure in a number of ways.
Maine Tax Reform (LD 1495) Frequently Asked Questions (PDF)
(July 1, 2008) Maine's Knowledge-based Economy Development Strategy: The 30 & 1000 Progress Report is updating the 30&1000 analysis and set new benchmarks for the percentage of 4-year degrees and R&D expenditures per employed worker that would be needed today for Maine to reach the current national average per capita income.
30 & 1000 Progress Report, 2008 (PDF)
(April 1, 2008) In 2001, large numbers of Somali immigrants began moving to the Lewiston/Auburn area. While some came directly to Lewiston from Somalia, many others came from large cities in the United States. They came to Maine for the same reasons that many people move here: the quality of life and strong family values that make the state a good place to raise a family. The Lewiston/Auburn community has experienced some growing pains while taking in this new population. Employment has been one of the key issues.
Lewiston Migrant Report (PDF)
(February 26, 2008) This paper has four sections. First is a brief discussion of the economic role that private land owners play by allowing access to their land. Next is a review of the common reasons why landowners restrict access to their land. Public policy solutions will need to address these reasons in order to be successful. The third section is an overview of programs available in Maine and elsewhere to incent landowners to continue to allow public access. And finally, recommendations are suggested that may be effective in continuing, expanding, and improving public access to private land in Maine.
Public Access to Maine’s Private Lands: A Cultural and Economic Asset (PDF)
(December 1, 2007) Mike LeVert, Charles Colgan and Charles Lawton discuss the transformation of the economic environment of Maine’s forests over the past two decades. Paper companies have sold most of their holdings; residential and conservation demand for land has increased; forestland prices have skyrocketed; and new classes of landowners have different strategies, objectives, and time horizons than the old industrial landowners. The authors believe that management of Maine’s forests must now address changes in the economic environment with the same intensity as threats such as the spruce budworm were addressed if we are to keep Maine’s forests as forests.
The Economics of a Sustainable Maine Forest (PDF)
(July 19, 2007) In its 2006 report "Charting Maine’s Future: An Action Plan for Promoting Sustainable Prosperity and Quality Places," the Brookings Institution asserts that Maine’s quality places are scarce and valuable assets in today’s economy. At the request of the Governor’s Council on Maine’s Quality of Place, staff at the State Planning Office investigated the intellectual underpinnings of that claim. They also considered why and how Maine might consider "Quality of Place" as a new framework for economic development. This paper summarizes their findings and conclusions.
Place and Prosperity - Maine's Quality of Place (PDF)
(July 1, 2007) The phenomenon of Maine’s aging population is often wondered about, but seldom thoroughly investigated. As the impending demographic change approaches, it becomes increasingly important to identify potential implications for Maine’s economy. On a broad scale, this report represents an integrated collection of the research that various academic scholars and policymakers have already done on the issue of population aging, both in the U.S. and Maine. It does not offer any new analysis, but rather serves to catalogue the ideas people have already begun thinking about in the hope that it will aid others to recognize areas that will require additional attention as Maine prepares to age successfully.
Maine's Aging Population - A Survey of Potential Economic Implications (PDF)
(February 1, 2007) Creating a more effective education system -– one with a streamlined structure -– while allowing for local voice and connection. Why LSRS? Maine is performing above the average in national test scores, but scores reached a plateau in 2000 and have stayed there. According to the Brookings Institution, Maine’s K-12 system is one of the most expensive in the country and the largest single outlay in the combined state and local budget. Brookings says the cumbersome system imposes heavy costs on taxpayers because of its complex, highly fragmented governance structure.
Local School, Regional Support - February 2007 (PDF)
(January 1, 2007) The closure of Naval Air Station Brunswick (NASB) will give a new face to the mid-coast Maine communities that have hosted military personnel and their families for years. Businesses will look for new customers; base workers will change jobs; landlords will advertise for new tenants; and everyone will contemplate potential reuses of the base. In short, the entire community will feel the change. The closure will also bring opportunities. Research shows that most communities facing a military base closure recover after an initial adjustment period. Some even experience enhanced economic growth when military facilities are successfully converted to civilian use.
Understanding the Impact of Closing Naval Air Station Brunswick (PDF)
(September 1, 2006) Maine Policy Review, Fall 2006: The five economists and financial professionals who comprise Maine's Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) meet twice a year to forecast the state's economy. By statute, this forecast then is used to project state revenues and develop the state's budget. In this article, State Economist Catherine Reilly presents the CEFC's fall 2006 forecast for employment, income, and inflation. Although never a guarantee, this year's forecast suggests Maine's economic future will be one of slow and steady growth, with moderating energy prices, lower inflation, and a continued expansion of the state’s service sector.
Maine's Economy: Peering into the Crystal Ball (PDF)
(April 23, 2006) In March 2006, people of the Katahdin region gathered for an economic summit at their new higher education center in East Millinocket. Their goal was to plan the economic future of their community in the wake of two decades of shrinking job opportunities -- no simple task. I was invited to talk about the economic state of rural Maine and its prospects for the future. I began, as economists must, with people and places.
The Economy in Motion: Rural Maine's Past, Present, and Emerging Future (PDF)
(January 1, 2006) The State Planning Office has been charged with the task of establishing a process for collecting county and municipal revenue and spending data to serve the data needs of the US Census Bureau.
Establishing a Process for the Collection of Municipal and County Data for the US Census Bureau (PDF)
(February 2, 2005) Notes from a panel presentation to the Maine Gerontological Society
On Aging, Productivity, and Labor Shortages (PDF)
(June 1, 2004) One of the most frequently asked questions about the Maine economy is, "What are Maine’s biggest industries?" This brief paper attempts to answer this question as well as provide some numbers for natural resource based industries and tourism.
Maine's Biggest Industries: Structural Overview of the Maine Economy, 2004 (PDF)
(April 2, 2004) Prepared for REALIZE!Maine: This paper explores the characteristics of young people aged 20-34 who moved from Maine, to Maine, and within Maine over the period 1995-2000. The paper uses data from the 2000 census to provide a more detailed picture of the age, employment, income, locational and educational characteristics of young people who moved during this period.
Maine Youth Migration Profiles 1995-2000 (PDF)
(April 1, 2004) Report for REALIZE!Maine: Young adults are the most mobile segment of the population. Where they live is influenced not only by where they have ties to family and friends, but also by their career choices, their choice of college to attend, their desire to experience different lifestyles, and their sense of adventure and desire to explore that which lies beyond their door. Concern that Maine is losing its youngest citizens has become widespread. Indeed, Maine’s population growth has lagged behind the nation since the early 1990s. There are fewer young adults today age 20-34, and the proportion of children and young adults as a percent of Maine’s population is declining.
Maine's Changing Population: A Summary of Structural Changes, Mobility and Regional Variations (PDF)
(June 1, 2003) Maine's coastal geography and abundance of natural resources vital to the nation's development led to early settlement and rapid population and economic growth. When those resources become less vital following the Civil War, however, Maine's growth slowed markedly and remains slow today. But, because Maine was not spoiled by continuous rapid growth, the State's current tourism campaign can boast of "Maine -- the way life should be!"
A Brief History of the Maine Economy, 2003 (PDF)
(March 11, 2003) Maine's Knowledge-based Economy Development Strategy: The 30 & 1000 Progress Report is updating the 30&1000 analysis and set new benchmarks for the percentage of 4-year degrees and R&D expenditures per employed worker that would be needed today for Maine to reach the current national average per capita income.
30 & 1000 Progress Report, 2003 (PDF)
(March 1, 2003) Maine’s dairy industry has suffered for many years from depressed pricing. Milk produced on Maine farms today is worth approximately the same as in the mid 1970’s. After some improvement in 2001, milk prices in dropped sharply in 2002 and have continued to drop during the first quarter of 2003.
Assessment of the Current Situation and Economic Impact of Maine's Dairy Industry (PDF)
(April 1, 2002) Final Report of the Maine Millennium Commission on Hunger and Food Security: Thousands of Maine citizens lack food security. Many go hungry for periods of time. In recent years a vast network of services have developed to alleviate hunger among the State's neediest citizens. These programs, though essential, represent an astounding investment of time, dollars, public and private efforts, and involve nearly every sector of the food production and distribution system and social service delivery systems, yet serve merely to alleviate hunger on a day to day basis, not to end hunger.
Ending Hunger in Maine, Full Report (PDF)
(November 1, 2001) Maine's Knowledge-based Economy Development Strategy: The 30 & 1000 Progress Report is updating the 30&1000 analysis and set new benchmarks for the percentage of 4-year degrees and R&D expenditures per employed worker that would be needed today for Maine to reach the current national average per capita income.
30 and 1000 Strategy: How To Build A Knowledge-based Economy in Maine and Raise Incomes to the National Average By 2010 (PDF)
(February 1, 2001) Fishing, Farming and Forestry are the foundational industries on which the state’s economy and persona were built. While the dominance of these three industries has diminished, they still have a significant presence as they currently provide 8.3% of Maine’s jobs and 9.6% of the State’s Gross State Product (GSP). Job growth has stagnated over the past 30 years in these industries, and while value added has grown, it has not kept pace with value added growth in other sectors of the Maine economy. The direct economic contribution of these industries underestimates their importance to Maine’s people, economy and culture, as these industries are the primary stewards of the rural landscape on which Maine’s vital Tourism Industry and its emerging Retirement Industry are built, and which serves as an attractant to college students, entrepreneurs and researchers seeking a high "quality of place".
Fishing, farming, and forestry: Resources for the future (PDF)
(December 1, 1999) Of all the land types at risk of conversion from development sprawl, open farmland is among the most at risk. When farmers cleared land for agricultural use decades ago they chose land that was most productive and most efficient to farm: land that is relatively flat or gently rolling, made up of well-drained soils, and generally located along river and travel corridors. Agriculture had become widespread throughout much of Maine by the end of the 1800's, and though it still remains remarkably dispersed, it is today found primarily along the same great river valleys and major highways. After all, our early road system was laid out essentially to connect farm to farm and the farms to town centers. Maine's farmland has been in the path of development ever since.
Maine Agricultural Land Loss (PDF)
Poverty Reports
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