The Employment Situation in Maine - September 2023 Bookmark and Share

October 20, 2023

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 20, 2023

Contact: Glenn Mills, 207-530-2079

The Employment Situation in Maine - September 2023

Labor market conditions continued a pattern of stability with little change in the number of jobs in the first nine months of the year. At 2.7 percent, the unemployment rate remained near record lows. The small rise in unemployment over the last two months was from increased labor force participation.

This news release presents estimates derived from two monthly surveys. The Current Population Survey collects information from households on labor force status, including labor force participation, employment, and unemployment. The Current Employment Statistics survey collects information from nonfarm employers by industry on the number of jobs, hours worked, and wages paid to individuals on their payrolls. Both surveys are administered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Preliminary estimates from the two surveys sometimes diverge in direction or magnitude of change. Annual revisions published each spring tend to bring them in to better alignment.

Statewide Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Estimates

The unemployment rate increased to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent in August. The small rise was from higher labor force participation and not from decreased employment. Unemployment has been below four percent for 22 consecutive months the third longest period of such low rates.

Three-month averages smooth some of the monthly variability in sample-based estimates and reflect revisions for previous months. The 2.5 percent average unemployment rate for July to September was little changed from 2.4 percent for the three months through June. In that period labor force participation and employment to population averages increased.

September unemployment rates for the U.S. and New England were 3.8 and 2.7 percent.

Statewide Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Jobs Estimates

The 647,500 nonfarm wage and salary jobs was little changed (down 100) from an upwardly revised estimate for August. Except for July, jobs estimates have not deviated from the average by more the 0.2 percent in any month of 2023. This pattern of stability occurred in most sectors. Only in federal government, which added staffing at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, and in leisure and hospitality, which tends to be more variable than other sectors, did the number of jobs diverge from the average by more than two percent in any month.

Nonfarm jobs increased by 6,100 in the 12 months through September. Most of that gain occurred in the last months of 2022. More recently, the July to September average of jobs changed little from the average for April to June (up 400). The three-month average through September was 1.5 percentage points higher than the average for calendar year 2019, before the pandemic. Private sector jobs were 1.8 percent higher and government jobs were 0.3 percent lower, mostly in public higher education (reflected in state government).

County and Metro Area Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Estimates

On a not seasonally adjusted basis the statewide unemployment rate was 2.5 percent. Of the 16 counties, rates were at least 0.3 percentage points higher than that in six counties, at least 0.3 points lower than that in four, and close to the average in six. Rates were lowest in Sagadahoc and highest in Piscataquis counties.

Among the three metro areas of the state, unemployment was below the statewide average in Portland-S. Portland and close to the average in Bangor and Lewiston-Auburn.

(Labor force estimates for substate areas, including unemployment rates, are not seasonally adjusted. Because of this, estimates for a certain month should be compared to the same month in other years and should not be compared to other months in the same or other years.)

Statewide and Metro Area Not Seasonally Adjusted Hours and Earnings Estimates

The private sector workweek averaged 33.6 hours and earnings averaged $30.21 per hour in September. Average hours decreased 0.6 and hourly earnings increased 3.1 percent from a year earlier. Earnings increases were led by a 13.5 percent gain in manufacturing. The workweek was longest in construction and shortest in leisure and hospitality. Earnings were highest in professional and business services and lowest in leisure and hospitality.

Hourly earnings were higher than the statewide average in the Portland-S. Portland metro and slightly lower in Bangor and Lewiston-Auburn.

NOTES:

  1. Preliminary seasonally-adjusted labor force estimates, including rates (labor force participation, employment, and unemployment rates), and levels (labor force, employed, and unemployed), as well as nonfarm wage and salary job estimates are inexact. Annual revisions (published in March each year) add accuracy. A comparison of 2021 and 2022 revised and previously published estimates is available in this blog.

  2. The 90 percent confidence interval for the statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September was between 1.9 and 3.4 percent.

  3. Nonfarm wage and salary jobs from the payroll survey provide a better indication of changes in employment than resident employment from the household survey. The payroll survey is larger and has smaller margins of error.

  4. Nonfarm payroll jobs estimates tend to be variable from month to month because the representativeness of reporting employers can differ. Seasonal adjustment is imperfect because weather, the beginning and ending of school semesters, and other events do not always occur with the same timing relative to the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month, which is the survey reference period. This sometimes exacerbates monthly changes in jobs estimates. Users should look to the trend over multiple months rather than the change from one specific month to another. Jobs estimates for the period from April 2022 to September 2023 will be replaced with payroll data in March 2024. Those benchmark revisions usually show less monthly variability than previously published estimates.